ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 51 game
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 38 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 27 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 25 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
Tusk
Fernans · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Warlock
flacko · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
557 picks · 738 bans
Tusk
497 picks · 353 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 646 bans
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 546 bans
Shadow Demon
377 picks · 635 bans
Gyrocopter
365 picks · 548 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 169 bans
Snapfire
356 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
Rune Eaters 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerAnkou
Shadow Fiendniche
Ember SpiritEthereal
Meepo423
Jakiromonodrama
Tidehunterlaise
Tuskani-san
Shadow DemonDaze
54% · 111 games
Crystal MaidenSe
Game 2prediction missed16:36
Rune Eaters 60%Inner Circle 40%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 48:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracEthereal
Naga Siren423
DawnbreakerAnkou
Storm Spiritniche
Tinyani-san
Slardarlaise
Ancient Apparitionmonodrama
DazzleSe
48% · 149 games
HoodwinkDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 72%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2