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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 56 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 36 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
52%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%

Inner Circle

Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 22 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
22%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 17 games
35%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 934 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 423 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 627 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
451 picks · 591 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 946 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
403 picks · 246 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 663 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 438 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:47
Rune Eaters 57%Inner Circle 43%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 49:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunayowaai
50% · 79 games52% · 358 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Viper
ViperEthereal
53% · 116 games47% · 110 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
52% · 277 games53% · 42 games
Kez423
Kez
Tiny
Tinyani-san
45% · 390 games48% · 183 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmonodrama
54% · 287 games48% · 456 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed19:55
Rune Eaters 56%Inner Circle 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 45:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
44% · 207 games59% · 104 games
Razor423
Razor
Tiny
TinyEthereal
45% · 440 games53% · 532 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
54% · 320 games42% · 365 games
Marslaise
Mars
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionmonodrama
51% · 138 games48% · 151 game
DazzleSe
Dazzle
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
58% · 273 games45% · 226 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 59%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2