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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LiXO eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 60 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 54 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 47 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 41 game
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 36 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 34 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 32 games
56%

LiXO eSports

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rayx · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Garbat1y · 3 games
33%
Marci
Marci
aguwa · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
aguwa · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
zenica · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
zenica · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
zenica · 2 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
eva · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
668 picks · 828 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
580 picks · 595 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
474 picks · 323 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 417 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1085 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 696 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
388 picks · 1002 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Rune Eaters 74%LiXO eSports 26%
The model gave 74% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 25:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
53% · 277 games45% · 401 game
Gyrocoptereva
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckEthereal
61% · 343 games48% · 174 games
InvokerRayx
Invoker
Bristleback
BristlebackAnkou
57% · 275 games44% · 203 games
Brewmasterzenica
Brewmaster
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
49% · 399 games44% · 164 games
Skywrath Mageaguwa
Skywrath Mage
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
49% · 340 games49% · 692 games
TuskGarbat1y
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct34:16
Rune Eaters 75%LiXO eSports 25%
The model gave 75% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
51% · 358 games51% · 303 games
Bristlebackzenica
Bristleback
Huskar
HuskarEthereal
59% · 108 games56% · 125 games
Clinkzeva
Clinkz
Omniknight
OmniknightAnkou
46% · 54 games49% · 430 games
PuckRayx
Puck
Tusk
Tuskani-san
46% · 661 game47% · 598 games
WarlockGarbat1y
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
47% · 822 games49% · 547 games
Tinyaguwa
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 89%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2