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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MODUSloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 42 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 33 games
39%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 26 games
58%

MODUS

Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 4 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bottega · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 556 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
466 picks · 525 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 412 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
458 picks · 232 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 901 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:32
Rune Eaters 58%MODUS 42%
The model gave 58% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by MODUS in 42:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertayowaai
63% · 139 games45% · 17 games
Phantom Lancerbottega
Phantom Lancer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEthereal
58% · 330 games46% · 252 games
Underlordelmo^^
Underlord
Slardar
SlardarAnkou
54% · 154 games46% · 639 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
51% · 257 games56% · 9 games
Winter Wyvernprblms
Winter Wyvern
Lion
Lionani-san
52% · 87 games37% · 50 games
Techiesmrls
Techies
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Rune Eaters 56%MODUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 48:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
48% · 214 games45% · 317 games
Underlordelmo^^
Underlord
Puck
PuckEthereal
50% · 316 games53% · 446 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAnkou
45% · 289 games61% · 101 game
Faceless Voidbottega
Faceless Void
Phoenix
PhoenixKidaro
49% · 206 games56% · 15 games
Winter Wyvernprblms
Winter Wyvern
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkani-san
50% · 279 games47% · 425 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct18:22
Rune Eaters 57%MODUS 43%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceryowaai
58% · 29 games49% · 218 games
Terrorbladebottega
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEthereal
46% · 79 games50% · 326 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackAnkou
51% · 218 games54% · 246 games
Slardarelmo^^
Slardar
Tiny
Tinyani-san
51% · 342 games44% · 43 games
Techiesmrls
Techies
Phoenix
PhoenixKidaro
48% · 170 games56% · 5 games
Winter Wyvernprblms
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 66%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3