Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 2 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 2 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
Dragon Knight
TA2000 · 1 game
Iooften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 1 game
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Egor · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 5 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
448 picks · 270 bans
Mars
394 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
333 picks · 430 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 552 bans
Queen of Pain
307 picks · 471 bans
Tiny
292 picks · 313 bans
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 369 bans
Kunkka
271 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:26
Rune Eaters 52%No Monkey Business 48%
The model gave 52% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaTA2000
Queen of PainEgor
Storm SpirithAze
Razorxannii
Chaos Knightemptiness
Dragon KnightMieRo
Keeper of the LightArrOw
Techiesillusion
Game 2prediction missed9:27
Rune Eaters 55%No Monkey Business 45%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 23:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainhAze
Templar AssassinEgor
Monkey KingTA2000
Razorxannii
Dragon Knightemptiness
PangolierMieRo
MiranaArrOw
Hoodwinkillusion
Game 3prediction missed17:29
Rune Eaters 53%No Monkey Business 47%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Kunkkaxannii
Storm SpirithAze
PuckEgor
Marsemptiness
Dragon KnightMieRo
Keeper of the LightArrOw
Linaillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 55%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3