?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 39 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
53%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%

Winter Bear

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 13 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 12 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
waveformn · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
fortniteMan · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 812 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 554 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 396 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
428 picks · 296 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1026 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 664 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 588 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 517 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 68%
Hero pool strength60% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:24
Rune Eaters 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
54% · 179 games55% · 79 games
Lunapaw
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
44% · 199 games49% · 383 games
Storm SpiritPanda
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
45% · 219 games52% · 70 games
LargofortniteMan
Largo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerani-san
55% · 30 games50% · 278 games
Shadow ShamanDelight
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
48% · 183 games
Game 2prediction missed25:41
Rune Eaters 61%Winter Bear 39%
The model gave 61% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 45:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityowaai
46% · 234 games45% · 72 games
Lunapaw
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackAnkou
41% · 91 game51% · 460 games
Ember SpiritPanda
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingEthereal
58% · 79 games53% · 74 games
LargofortniteMan
Largo
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
53% · 145 games52% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinDelight
Nyx Assassin
Windranger
Windrangerani-san
51% · 141 game
Game 3prediction correct53:21
Rune Eaters 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
51% · 194 games55% · 92 games
Lunapaw
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEthereal
48% · 329 games53% · 652 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Batrider
BatriderAnkou
44% · 250 games51% · 245 games
TidehunterfortniteMan
Tidehunter
Tusk
Tuskani-san
46% · 370 games53% · 390 games
Shadow ShamanDelight
Shadow Shaman
Disruptor
DisruptorKidaro
47% · 236 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 75%
Series resultRune Eaters 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3