EPIC League Season 3. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
RUSSIANDRILLwin 1:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RUSSIANDRILL
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 16 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 13 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 8 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Batridersignature
ntakii · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ntakii · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
339 picks · 686 bans
Void Spirit
321 picks · 399 bans
Mars
269 picks · 472 bans
Earth Spirit
250 picks · 210 bans
Death Prophet
224 picks · 332 bans
Rubick
224 picks · 124 bans
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 638 bans
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 435 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 68%
Series resultRUSSIANDRILL 1:0
Series predictionmissed