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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Salvation Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Salvation Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Dric~ · 4 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Dric~ · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
LOyd · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Dric~ · 2 games
0%

Yangon Galacticos

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Young PH · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
427 picks · 697 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
405 picks · 324 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 656 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 361 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
387 picks · 853 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 487 bans
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
361 picks · 359 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
358 picks · 160 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:29
Salvation Gaming 44%Yangon Galacticos 56%
The model gave 56% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWonder'boy
47% · 70 games51% · 202 games
Naga SirenKsh
Naga Siren
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYoungGodLevi
51% · 100 games51% · 382 games
Ember SpiritYoung PH
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastRupido
46% · 119 games
Lion
LionDric~
60% · 83 games
Rubick
RubickLOyd
42% · 212 games
Game 2prediction missed35:10
Salvation Gaming 41%Yangon Galacticos 59%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawRupido
50% · 84 games53% · 216 games
Faceless VoidKsh
Faceless Void
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
45% · 50 games60% · 118 games
LeshracYoung PH
Leshrac
Invoker
InvokerWonder'boy
39% · 40 games
Techies
TechiesDric~
38% · 86 games
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLOyd
46% · 74 games
Game 3prediction missed38:10
Salvation Gaming 41%Yangon Galacticos 59%
The model gave 59% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Salvation Gaming in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYoungGodLevi
48% · 33 games57% · 96 games
LifestealerKsh
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterRupido
38% · 52 games53% · 157 games
PuckYoung PH
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
42% · 46 games
Lion
LionDric~
45% · 55 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLOyd
50% · 67 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 62%
Series resultSalvation Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3