The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
B8 Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 11 games
Skywrath Magesignature
N1NE · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 6 games
Rubick
N1NE · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
B8 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
Alchemistsignature
StoneBank · 6 games
Disruptor
Lodine · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
578 picks · 611 bans
Rubick
463 picks · 241 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 800 bans
Spirit Breaker
376 picks · 383 bans
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 716 bans
Doom
343 picks · 732 bans
Timbersaw
342 picks · 835 bans
Morphling
339 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Sand King Gomez 46%B8 Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PhoenixCHAAANNN
Faceless VoidV-Tune
TuskN1NE
DawnbreakerStoneBank
47% · 284 games
TinyDendi
54% · 138 games
Nature's ProphetKidaro
60% · 36 games
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Game 2prediction correct3:25
Sand King Gomez 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit BreakerN1NE
GyrocopterV-Tune
Keeper of the LightCHAAANNN
Ember SpiritDendi
47% · 30 games
Legion CommanderStoneBank
42% · 176 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
44% · 25 games
IoKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 53%
Series resultB8 Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2