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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDUB Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 3 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 3 games
33%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
0%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
islA · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 7 games
29%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mark · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 676 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 484 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
603 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
562 picks · 434 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
524 picks · 359 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
515 picks · 1147 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
509 picks · 505 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
498 picks · 349 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:39
Sand King Gomez 54%CDUB Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 57:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkNeKo
53% · 100 games55% · 100 games
LeshracMark
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaN1NE
52% · 321 game53% · 26 games
LifestealerDouble King
Lifestealer
46% · 17 games
Outworld DestroyerislA
Outworld Destroyer
42% · 153 games
TuskSanctified
Tusk
41% · 125 games
EnchantressDuster
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Sand King Gomez 54%CDUB Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkNeKo
52% · 104 games52% · 54 games
Chaos KnightDouble King
Chaos Knight
Mirana
MiranaN1NE
56% · 346 games50% · 122 games
BeastmasterislA
Beastmaster
38% · 59 games
Dragon KnightMark
Dragon Knight
49% · 90 games
Primal BeastSanctified
Primal Beast
41% · 125 games
EnchantressDuster
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 59%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2