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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CDUB Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sand King Gomez

Mirana
Mirana
N1NE · 11 games
36%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
N1NE · 8 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 5 games
40%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
80%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
N1NE · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
0%

CDUB Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mark · 8 games
38%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Double King · 8 games
63%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
Mark · 7 games
86%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
islA · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Duster · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 5 games
20%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Duster · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
590 picks · 621 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
466 picks · 246 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
426 picks · 817 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
377 picks · 384 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 725 bans
49%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
345 picks · 841 bans
50%
Doom
Doom
343 picks · 757 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
341 picks · 716 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Sand King Gomez 44%CDUB Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk
TuskN1NE
52% · 268 games51% · 64 games
DawnbreakerDouble King
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCHAAANNN
59% · 78 games39% · 61 game
LycanislA
Lycan
38% · 24 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
54% · 41 game
Dark WillowSanctified
Dark Willow
42% · 156 games
SnapfireDuster
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct49:45
Sand King Gomez 41%CDUB Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 1:01:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCHAAANNN
63% · 4 games60% · 108 games
TerrorbladeDouble King
Terrorblade
Rubick
RubickN1NE
47% · 367 games55% · 44 games
DawnbreakerislA
Dawnbreaker
44% · 58 games
Legion CommanderMark
Legion Commander
53% · 96 games
Skywrath MageSanctified
Skywrath Mage
49% · 65 games
Shadow DemonDuster
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction missed39:10
Sand King Gomez 42%CDUB Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 24:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingN1NE
48% · 137 games66% · 10 games
GyrocopterDouble King
Gyrocopter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCHAAANNN
35% · 14 games50% · 91 game
Ember SpiritMark
Ember Spirit
42% · 25 games
UnderlordislA
Underlord
65% · 13 games
ChenDuster
Chen
63% · 12 games
LionSanctified
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 63%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3