Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fart Studioswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
Fart Studios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 283 bans
Marci
288 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 237 bans
Undying
262 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 487 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 532 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Sand King Gomez
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:23
Sand King Gomez 55%Fart Studios 45%
The model gave 55% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 44:38.
Game 2prediction missed66:42
Sand King Gomez 55%Fart Studios 45%
The model gave 55% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 1:07:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 55%
Series resultFart Studios 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2