Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Feltwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Felt
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 14 games
Mirana
solji · 13 games
Disruptorsignature
albinozebra · 10 games
Rubick
solji · 10 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 9 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Berna · 8 games
Tiny
solji · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
707 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
570 picks · 498 bans
Beastmaster
469 picks · 1148 bans
Doom
466 picks · 849 bans
Ember Spirit
420 picks · 1063 bans
Pangolier
399 picks · 856 bans
Enchantress
396 picks · 562 bans
Mirana
392 picks · 215 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
Sand King Gomez 45%Felt 55%
The model gave 55% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClockwerkJubei
MagnusBerna
RubickN1NE
BeastmasterFayde
50% · 278 games
Miranasolji
51% · 64 games
Lichalbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct12:24
Sand King Gomez 47%Felt 53%
The model gave 53% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 26:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SilencerN1NE
BeastmasterFayde
IoJubei
Drow RangerBerna
49% · 46 games
Techiessolji
51% · 31 game
Lichalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 56%
Series resultFelt 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2