ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GateKeptloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
N1NE · 7 games
Mirana
N1NE · 6 games
Silenceroften banned
Jubei · 5 games
Rubick
N1NE · 4 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
CHAAANNN · 3 games
Iooften banned
Jubei · 3 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 3 games
GateKept
Silenceroften banned
CHAAANNN · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Chen · 3 games
Rubick
Chen · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
Chen · 3 games
Disruptor
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Lich
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JP · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
216 picks · 271 bans
Grimstroke
184 picks · 190 bans
Pangolier
183 picks · 388 bans
Dark Willow
178 picks · 75 bans
Earthshaker
169 picks · 167 bans
Sven
169 picks · 248 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 246 bans
Phoenix
152 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% GateKept
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Sand King Gomez
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:16
Sand King Gomez 51%GateKept 49%
The model gave 51% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaH1j4ck
SilencerSlaw
Dark WillowN1NE
Ancient ApparitionCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction missed43:61
Sand King Gomez 52%GateKept 48%
The model gave 52% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by GateKept in 1:04:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterH1j4ck
PhoenixSlaw
Shadow DemonCHAAANNN
Dark WillowN1NE
Game 3prediction correct40:16
Sand King Gomez 51%GateKept 49%
The model gave 51% on Sand King Gomez — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Vengeful SpiritSlaw
Skywrath MageN1NE
Treant ProtectorCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteSand King Gomez · 51%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3