Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezwin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
goonsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
NeKo · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 1 game
Rubick
N1NE · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 1 game
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 2 games
Tusk
Boris · 2 games
Disruptor
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
AfrOmoush · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Boris · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
801 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
573 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
522 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
513 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
462 picks · 748 bans
Snapfire
420 picks · 299 bans
Death Prophet
418 picks · 851 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 871 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength60% goons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:40
Sand King Gomez 45%goons 55%
The model gave 55% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 48:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkNeKo
Lone DruidBoris
MiranaN1NE
ClockwerkAfrOmoush
Game 2prediction missed37:29
Sand King Gomez 42%goons 58%
The model gave 58% on goons — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetNeKo
PangolierBoris
TinyN1NE
Dark WillowAfrOmoush
Game 3prediction missed31:16
Sand King Gomez 38%goons 62%
The model gave 62% on goons — the game was taken by Sand King Gomez in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNeKo
LeshracBoris
HoodwinkN1NE
Skywrath MageAfrOmoush
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 63%
Series resultSand King Gomez 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3