Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sand King Gomez
Mirana
N1NE · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
N1NE · 7 games
Slarkoften banned
NeKo · 5 games
Hoodwink
N1NE · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
N1NE · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
Rubick
N1NE · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
NeKo · 2 games
TSM
Rubicksignature
Ari · 35 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 21 game
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 15 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
Rikioften banned
Ari · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
Undyingsignature
Whitemon · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 504 bans
Beastmaster
482 picks · 1186 bans
Doom
480 picks · 898 bans
Ember Spirit
426 picks · 1084 bans
Pangolier
412 picks · 868 bans
Mirana
404 picks · 218 bans
Enchantress
397 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Sand King Gomez 27%TSM 73%
The model gave 73% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 24:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SilencerJubei
Lone Druidbryle-
LionN1NE
MorphlingTimado
48% · 71 game
Undyingkasane
50% · 4 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
51% · 62 games
BatriderAri
Game 2prediction correct14:46
Sand King Gomez 28%TSM 72%
The model gave 72% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingN1NE
Timbersawbryle-
MiranaJubei
TerrorbladeTimado
53% · 34 games
Venomancerkasane
56% · 50 games
PudgeAri
46% · 71 game
TechiesWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 85%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2