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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Sentinel Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sentinel Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Pamplona · 4 games
100%
Slardar
Slardar
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 3 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
555k · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555k · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
555k · 2 games
0%

Estar Backs

Tusk
Tusk
Prada · 6 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 5 games
80%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Prada · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 4 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 3 games
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
311 picks · 777 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
309 picks · 283 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
272 picks · 171 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 724 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
265 picks · 298 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
262 picks · 250 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
258 picks · 746 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
253 picks · 596 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:17
Sentinel Esports 44%Estar Backs 56%
The model gave 56% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Sentinel Esports in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterHermit
64% · 14 games63% · 22 games
AlchemistbsK7-
Alchemist
Snapfire
SnapfirePamplona
51% · 125 games44% · 79 games
HoodwinkMichael
Hoodwink
Silencer
Silencer555k
45% · 40 games46% · 78 games
DisruptorAccel
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct24:32
Sentinel Esports 46%Estar Backs 54%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterHermit
53% · 54 games49% · 140 games
GyrocopterbsK7-
Gyrocopter
Silencer
Silencer555k
48% · 117 games54% · 131 game
BatriderMichael
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixPamplona
48% · 270 games48% · 170 games
TuskAccel
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct27:23
Sentinel Esports 42%Estar Backs 58%
The model gave 58% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterHermit
36% · 22 games60% · 38 games
AlchemistbsK7-
Alchemist
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPamplona
50% · 119 games44% · 61 game
SnapfireMichael
Snapfire
Silencer
Silencer555k
44% · 45 games61% · 87 games
PugnaAccel
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 65%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3