EEF Dota 2 Qualifier 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Северная Македонияloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Украинаwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Северная Македония
No games played over 6 months.
Украина
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
652 picks · 514 bans
Marci
476 picks · 705 bans
Dawnbreaker
428 picks · 603 bans
Puck
421 picks · 881 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 416 bans
Zeus
289 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
286 picks · 475 bans
Razor
271 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 80%
Hero pool strength50% Северная Македония
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Северная Македония 50%Украина 50%
The model gave 50% on Украина — the game was taken by Украина in 34:02.
Game 2prediction missed41:18
Северная Македония 50%Украина 50%
The model gave 50% on Украина — the game was taken by Северная Македония in 31:52.
Game 3prediction correct41:34
Северная Македония 50%Украина 50%
The model gave 50% on Украина — the game was taken by Украина in 1:08:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 50%
Series resultУкраина 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3