ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
407 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 601 bans
Puck
282 picks · 620 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 358 bans
Mars
280 picks · 470 bans
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 235 bans
Lina
251 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 14%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% SG e-sports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:41
SG e-sports 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 39:15.
Game 2prediction missed39:19
SG e-sports 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on SG e-sports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteSG e-sports · 51%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2