Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
551 picks · 463 bans
Mars
436 picks · 688 bans
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 537 bans
Bane
398 picks · 277 bans
Puck
357 picks · 827 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 576 bans
Chaos Knight
334 picks · 660 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 641 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% SG e-sports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:30
SG e-sports 42%beastcoast 58%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 30:00.
Game 2prediction correct31:21
SG e-sports 42%beastcoast 58%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:03.
Game 3prediction correct30:32
SG e-sports 42%beastcoast 58%
The model gave 58% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:43.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 58%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3