The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SG e-sportsloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SG e-sports
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Beastmastersignature
ArzenT · 14 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 13 games
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 12 games
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 12 games
Visagesignature
drakeel · 10 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Mjz · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 9 games
Viperoften banned
drakeel · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
737 picks · 571 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1030 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 642 bans
Marci
456 picks · 802 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 417 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 390 bans
Razor
308 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
SG e-sports 42%Mad Kings 58%
The model gave 58% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 42:17.
Game 2prediction correct24:34
SG e-sports 42%Mad Kings 58%
The model gave 58% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 40:47.
Game 3prediction correct38:6
SG e-sports 42%Mad Kings 58%
The model gave 58% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 26:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 58%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3