The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
721 picks · 570 bans
Puck
499 picks · 1024 bans
Dawnbreaker
492 picks · 656 bans
Marci
480 picks · 811 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 425 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
303 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
Shenzhen 26%Invictus Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 24:50.
Game 2prediction correct9:37
Shenzhen 26%Invictus Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 33:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 74%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2