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i-League 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shenzhen

No games played over 6 months.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
XCJ · 9 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 6 games
33%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dstones · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 946 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
376 picks · 573 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 610 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
294 picks · 584 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 264 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 172 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
241 picks · 407 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
239 picks · 541 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength52% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Sparking Arrow Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteSparking Arrow Gaming · 60%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictionmissed