Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Shenzhenwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ybb Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shenzhen
No games played over 6 months.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
481 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
479 picks · 450 bans
Bane
458 picks · 278 bans
Dragon Knight
418 picks · 497 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 567 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 654 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 579 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 300 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Shenzhen
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Shenzhen
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:37
Shenzhen 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 1:04:34.
Game 2prediction missed22:37
Shenzhen 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 48:05.
Game 3prediction missed43:18
Shenzhen 52%Ybb Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Shenzhen — the game was taken by Ybb Gaming in 37:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteShenzhen · 52%
Series resultShenzhen 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3