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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shinigamiloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shinigami

No games played over 6 months.

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 979 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
416 picks · 600 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 659 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 624 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
320 picks · 285 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
267 picks · 372 bans
61%
Tusk
Tusk
258 picks · 175 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
256 picks · 167 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 31%
Hero pool strength54% Shinigami
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Shinigami
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteShinigami · 62%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictionmissed