Школьная лига 2023 · BO3
result vs predictionШ№Школа №1win 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
М"МАОУ "СШ № 149"loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Школа №1
No games played over 6 months.
МАОУ "СШ № 149"
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 441 bans
Muerta
235 picks · 327 bans
Dark Willow
234 picks · 114 bans
Phoenix
224 picks · 330 bans
Treant Protector
215 picks · 432 bans
Tusk
205 picks · 178 bans
Kunkka
203 picks · 542 bans
Centaur Warrunner
199 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Школа №1
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Школа №1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Школа №1 50%МАОУ "СШ № 149" 50%
The model gave 50% on Школа №1 — the game was taken by Школа №1.
Game 2prediction missed
Школа №1 50%МАОУ "СШ № 149" 50%
The model gave 50% on Школа №1 — the game was taken by МАОУ "СШ № 149".
Game 3prediction correct
Школа №1 50%МАОУ "СШ № 149" 50%
The model gave 50% on Школа №1 — the game was taken by Школа №1.
Model check result
Model favoriteШкола №1 · 50%
Series resultШкола №1 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3