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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
60%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
54%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
67%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 29 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 882 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 407 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
388 picks · 294 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
382 picks · 794 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 534 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
339 picks · 674 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
335 picks · 476 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 380 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Shopify Rebellion 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPakazs
57% · 126 games49% · 205 games
SvenMunkushi~
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
50% · 202 games49% · 138 games
DoomCloud
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
51% · 193 games36% · 17 games
HuskarChira JUNIOR
Huskar
Chen
ChenSkem
53% · 96 games54% · 40 games
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
Nyx Assassin
43% · 217 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct10:32
Shopify Rebellion 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckYopaj
55% · 198 games59% · 64 games
ClinkzMunkushi~
Clinkz
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPakazs
48% · 155 games58% · 173 games
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
40% · 198 games50% · 162 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
51% · 255 games44% · 216 games
Phoenixswedenstrong
Phoenix
50% · 191 game
SvenRESPECT
Sven
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 57%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2