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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Puck
Puckoften banned
Abed · 11 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 9 games
56%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nightfall · 6 games
67%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
albinozebra · 30 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 11 games
64%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
44%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
dnm · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Speeed · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
albinozebra · 8 games
63%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 6 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Speeed · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 347 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
334 picks · 335 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
271 picks · 200 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
268 picks · 263 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 145 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
185 picks · 106 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
180 picks · 503 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
176 picks · 464 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:5
Shopify Rebellion 61%5RATFORCESTAFF 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaArteezy
52% · 58 games62% · 101 game
Naga Sirendnm
Naga Siren
Underlord
UnderlordSabeRLight-
36% · 33 games54% · 183 games
BeastmasterSpeeed
Beastmaster
Tusk
TuskAbed
54% · 166 games51% · 89 games
Jakiroalbinozebra
Jakiro
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
47% · 160 games40% · 160 games
EnchantressCTOMAHEH1
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
44% · 116 games
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Shopify Rebellion 60%5RATFORCESTAFF 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
48% · 54 games47% · 183 games
Linadnm
Lina
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArteezy
50% · 48 games50% · 103 games
Primal BeastSpeeed
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderAbed
53% · 84 games49% · 114 games
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
49% · 164 games51% · 96 games
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
53% · 146 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2