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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apex Genesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Skem · 12 games
58%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
44%

Apex Genesis

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 9 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Sammyboy · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
YamSun · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
W1sh- · 7 games
43%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Fayde · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
355 picks · 344 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
350 picks · 401 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 502 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
296 picks · 265 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
281 picks · 389 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
279 picks · 458 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:41
Shopify Rebellion 60%Apex Genesis 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 49:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
50% · 192 games49% · 216 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingYopaj
57% · 70 games48% · 140 games
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
47% · 92 games55% · 150 games
MagnusFayde
Magnus
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
48% · 241 game46% · 199 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskSkem
46% · 226 games56% · 116 games
Treant ProtectorYamSun
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct36:24
Shopify Rebellion 59%Apex Genesis 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTimado
47% · 25 games52% · 178 games
PuckW1sh-
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
44% · 245 games54% · 103 games
AlchemistSpeeed
Alchemist
Enigma
Enigmamangekyou
50% · 138 games69% · 57 games
UnderlordFayde
Underlord
Mirana
MiranaSkem
49% · 163 games56% · 195 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskHellscream
35% · 161 game51% · 199 games
Crystal MaidenYamSun
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct32:31
Shopify Rebellion 60%Apex Genesis 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackTimado
54% · 42 games55% · 96 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Visage
Visagemangekyou
47% · 34 games45% · 73 games
Void SpiritW1sh-
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckYopaj
49% · 203 games49% · 142 games
WindrangerSpeeed
Windranger
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
49% · 117 games50% · 157 games
EnchantressYamSun
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskSkem
51% · 151 game50% · 79 games
MarciBignum
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 72%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3