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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apex Genesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Skem · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 11 games
64%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%

Apex Genesis

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
YamSun · 10 games
40%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
44%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bignum · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 648 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 454 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 512 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
346 picks · 431 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
317 picks · 170 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
316 picks · 633 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 382 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
284 picks · 298 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total75% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
Shopify Rebellion 63%Apex Genesis 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
49% · 377 games50% · 233 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
51% · 179 games48% · 134 games
Shadow FiendYamSun
Shadow Fiend
Enigma
Enigmamangekyou
54% · 149 games45% · 191 game
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHellscream
51% · 85 games52% · 190 games
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Crystal Maiden
Chen
ChenSkem
52% · 135 games47% · 177 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed39:48
Shopify Rebellion 63%Apex Genesis 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 55:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackTimado
56% · 145 games45% · 203 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
55% · 15 games50% · 120 games
Sand KingRCY
Sand King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
51% · 395 games51% · 206 games
Primal BeastFayde
Primal Beast
Zeus
ZeusSkem
48% · 99 games47% · 102 games
EnigmaSpeeed
Enigma
Lion
LionHellscream
54% · 234 games44% · 257 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct32:20
Shopify Rebellion 64%Apex Genesis 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
46% · 212 games53% · 224 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Broodmother
Broodmothermangekyou
44% · 77 games52% · 180 games
Ember SpiritRCY
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
48% · 114 games52% · 55 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Zeus
ZeusSkem
52% · 135 games50% · 228 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
50% · 396 games52% · 247 games
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 75%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3