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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
77%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 10 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 9 games
56%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
745 picks · 468 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
616 picks · 560 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
586 picks · 463 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
529 picks · 582 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
405 picks · 239 bans
44%
Mirana
Mirana
397 picks · 386 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
387 picks · 570 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
380 picks · 592 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:22
Shopify Rebellion 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 45:23.
Game 2prediction correct43:21
Shopify Rebellion 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2