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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 23 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1002 picks · 687 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
653 picks · 480 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 955 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
530 picks · 360 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
524 picks · 382 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1188 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 378 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:40
Shopify Rebellion 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 55:35.
Game 2prediction correct34:27
Shopify Rebellion 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 51%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2