DreamLeague Season 19 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ex-HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 25 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 19 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 17 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
Enigmasignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 13 games
ex-HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
982 picks · 667 bans
Tiny
660 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
592 picks · 943 bans
Tusk
559 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
525 picks · 352 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 519 bans
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1121 bans
Clockwerk
484 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:28
Shopify Rebellion 72%ex-HellRaisers 28%
The model gave 72% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 33:29.
Game 2prediction correct58:27
Shopify Rebellion 72%ex-HellRaisers 28%
The model gave 72% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 72%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2