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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Feltloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 17 games
65%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 16 games
81%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 12 games
75%

Felt

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Fayde · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
solji · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Berna · 8 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Shoe · 6 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
solji · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Fayde · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
790 picks · 545 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 397 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 436 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
446 picks · 724 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
415 picks · 806 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
406 picks · 293 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 850 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
Shopify Rebellion 75%Felt 25%
The model gave 75% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
44% · 49 games50% · 130 games
Chaos KnightBerna
Chaos Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetAbed
46% · 204 games53% · 107 games
LycanFayde
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
59% · 38 games54% · 213 games
Miranasolji
Mirana
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCr1t-
50% · 87 games42% · 38 games
Gyrocopteralbinozebra
Gyrocopter
Undying
UndyingFly
49% · 110 games
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Shopify Rebellion 74%Felt 26%
The model gave 74% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
51% · 121 game49% · 46 games
LunaBerna
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendArteezy
47% · 122 games49% · 180 games
EnigmaFayde
Enigma
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
44% · 364 games48% · 522 games
Tinysolji
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorCr1t-
52% · 153 games57% · 252 games
Miranaalbinozebra
Mirana
Undying
UndyingFly
53% · 240 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 89%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2