DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ICIRON CLANloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 15 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
IRON CLAN
Batrideroften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
N1NE · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Dark Willow
N1NE · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Cucahook · 1 game
Lich
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Ogre Magi
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
CHAAANNN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
403 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
352 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 430 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 787 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:4
Shopify Rebellion 82%IRON CLAN 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 16:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreTimado
Phantom AssassinCucahook
Dawnbreakermangekyou
Ogre MagiCHAAANNN
MagnusYopaj
LionN1NE
LichSkem
MuertaHellscream
Game 2prediction correct19:4
Shopify Rebellion 82%IRON CLAN 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 17:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycanmangekyou
Dragon KnightCucahook
SpectreTimado
BatriderCHAAANNN
Monkey KingYopaj
Dark WillowN1NE
LichSkem
WeaverHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 95%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2