Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 16 games
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
Miranasignature
Fly · 14 games
Lucky Bird
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 7 games
Treant Protector
Yadomi · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 5 games
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
empyrean5 · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
722 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
559 picks · 487 bans
Beastmaster
434 picks · 1045 bans
Doom
420 picks · 684 bans
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 991 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 370 bans
Undying
381 picks · 605 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength65% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Shopify Rebellion 84%Lucky Bird 16%
The model gave 84% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 22:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaArteezy
MagnusSatoshi-
Void SpiritAbed
Ursablessed kid
VenomancerFly
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
Game 2prediction correct26:5
Shopify Rebellion 83%Lucky Bird 17%
The model gave 83% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 16:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendArteezy
Alchemistblessed kid
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
UnderlordSatoshi-
Ember SpiritAbed
RubickCr1t-
Spirit BreakerFly
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 95%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2