Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Lion
Thiolicor · 14 games
Lunaoften banned
Arteezy · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 12 games
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
MOUZ
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 45 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 44 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 38 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 37 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 32 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 31 game
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 30 games
Sven
Ulnit · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
373 picks · 777 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 349 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 244 bans
Weaver
339 picks · 706 bans
Clockwerk
316 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 498 bans
Gyrocopter
300 picks · 372 bans
Phoenix
291 picks · 616 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:4
Shopify Rebellion 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYopaj
MorphlingUlnit
SvenPakazs
DawnbreakerForce
PangolierSabeRLight-
TinySupream^
JakiroSkem
Nyx AssassinNARMAN
37% · 29 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Game 2prediction correct29:20
Shopify Rebellion 67%MOUZ 33%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 29:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 67%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2