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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
79%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 19 games
68%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 18 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 16 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
79%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 13 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%

nouns

Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Gunnar · 7 games
86%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 6 games
83%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
853 picks · 601 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
612 picks · 422 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
528 picks · 541 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
519 picks · 428 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
509 picks · 818 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
457 picks · 940 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
455 picks · 314 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
406 picks · 293 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 70%
Hero pool strength54% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total67% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Shopify Rebellion 63%nouns 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorArteezy
54% · 176 games54% · 70 games
LifestealerYamSun
Lifestealer
Lycan
LycanSabeRLight-
53% · 130 games44% · 279 games
DawnbreakerMoo
Dawnbreaker
Puck
PuckAbed
52% · 336 games50% · 313 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
48% · 492 games46% · 465 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
57% · 280 games44% · 287 games
UndyingHusky
Undying
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Shopify Rebellion 56%nouns 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerArteezy
45% · 151 game56% · 139 games
SlarkYamSun
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
43% · 304 games60% · 77 games
RikiGunnar
Riki
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
47% · 131 game55% · 292 games
BeastmasterMoo
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
37% · 232 games48% · 413 games
SnapfireLelis
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingFly
46% · 320 games63% · 217 games
DisruptorHusky
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 67%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2