DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 3:2
nounsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Abed · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fly · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Abed · 8 games
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Lelis · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
258 picks · 373 bans
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
Phoenix
256 picks · 387 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 202 bans
Nature's Prophet
213 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
202 picks · 281 bans
Dark Willow
197 picks · 98 bans
Faceless Void
188 picks · 446 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 68%
Hero pool strength58% nouns
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total52% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:10
Shopify Rebellion 50%nouns 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordArteezy
UrsaYuma
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
PuckStormstormer
Storm SpiritYopaj
Ember SpiritGunnar
TechiesThiolicor
HoodwinkLelis
46% · 93 games
LichFly
Game 2prediction missed38:11
Shopify Rebellion 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenArteezy
JuggernautYuma
ViperYopaj
Ember SpiritStormstormer
MarsSabeRLight-
BeastmasterGunnar
LionThiolicor
HoodwinkLelis
43% · 62 games
Vengeful SpiritFly
Game 3prediction correct16:32
Shopify Rebellion 48%nouns 52%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 40:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaArteezy
TerrorbladeYuma
PangolierYopaj
DoomGunnar
SlardarSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritStormstormer
BatriderThiolicor
TechiesLelis
42% · 90 games
Vengeful SpiritFly
Game 4prediction correct40:38
Shopify Rebellion 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:07:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistArteezy
TerrorbladeYuma
Keeper of the LightYopaj
Bounty HunterStormstormer
PangolierSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
GyrocopterThiolicor
TechiesLelis
53% · 102 games
Vengeful SpiritFly
Game 5prediction missed61:32
Shopify Rebellion 49%nouns 51%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:07:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordArteezy
InvokerStormstormer
DoomSabeRLight-
LunaYuma
KunkkaYopaj
MagnusGunnar
HoodwinkThiolicor
SnapfireLelis
49% · 76 games
LionFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 52%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5