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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
78%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Lycan
Lycansignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
85%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 14 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 711 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
627 picks · 460 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
586 picks · 433 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
556 picks · 900 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 391 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
515 picks · 360 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
503 picks · 1202 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
502 picks · 1102 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:9
Shopify Rebellion 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerArteezy
48% · 54 games43% · 39 games
Phantom LancerYuragi
Phantom Lancer
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
55% · 84 games50% · 90 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
49% · 118 games55% · 171 game
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
Enigma
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCr1t-
41% · 23 games46% · 77 games
TechiesTaiga
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
52% · 98 games
Game 2prediction missed25:26
Shopify Rebellion 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by OG in 39:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageArteezy
45% · 63 games53% · 83 games
MedusaYuragi
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
43% · 51 game59% · 201 game
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
45% · 135 games53% · 48 games
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Slardar
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
51% · 151 game54% · 120 games
IoTaiga
Io
Silencer
SilencerFly
40% · 52 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2