ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 11 games
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 11 games
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 30 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 27 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 26 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
562 picks · 792 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 322 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 676 bans
Phantom Assassin
429 picks · 785 bans
Bristleback
403 picks · 873 bans
Clockwerk
399 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 530 bans
Magnus
383 picks · 1069 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
Shopify Rebellion 36%PARIVISION 64%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTimado
Phantom AssassinSatanic
Ember SpiritYopaj
TinyNo[o]ne
Centaur WarrunnerPakazs
BrewmasterDM
RingmasterHellscream
Tinker9Class
TuskSkem
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Game 2prediction correct6:27
Shopify Rebellion 36%PARIVISION 64%
The model gave 64% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 19:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaYopaj
MedusaSatanic
MarsPakazs
BeastmasterDM
Monkey KingTimado
SniperNo[o]ne
DisruptorSkem
Batrider9Class
Skywrath MageHellscream
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 75%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2