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The Lima Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Asterloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 13 games
85%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 9 games
89%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 8 games
75%

Team Aster

Tiny
Tinysignature
BoBoKa · 20 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
BoBoKa · 12 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Ori · 10 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
BoBoKa · 10 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fantasy · 9 games
78%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
Monet · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
695 picks · 439 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
589 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 447 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
496 picks · 553 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
393 picks · 382 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
388 picks · 216 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
354 picks · 544 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
350 picks · 511 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:29
Shopify Rebellion 56%Team Aster 44%
The model gave 56% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team Aster in 49:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetArteezy
54% · 285 games48% · 95 games
UrsaMonet
Ursa
Kunkka
KunkkaAbed
49% · 202 games49% · 400 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
51% · 85 games50% · 187 games
MarciXxs
Marci
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
47% · 105 games48% · 82 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Undying
UndyingFly
50% · 336 games54% · 249 games
SnapfireFantasy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct25:25
Shopify Rebellion 58%Team Aster 42%
The model gave 58% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendArteezy
38% · 136 games55% · 136 games
PudgeMonet
Pudge
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
55% · 232 games50% · 236 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Broodmother
BroodmotherSabeRLight-
51% · 215 games47% · 572 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
50% · 448 games46% · 67 games
TechiesBoBoKa
Techies
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
55% · 246 games48% · 266 games
Crystal MaidenFantasy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2