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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Fly · 17 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 17 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
73%

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 16 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Speeed · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Speeed · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
RCY · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
FrancisLee · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
88%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 504 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
483 picks · 1183 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
480 picks · 895 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1084 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
411 picks · 869 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
403 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
400 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:20
Shopify Rebellion 76%Team DogChamp 24%
The model gave 76% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 35:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendArteezy
49% · 116 games49% · 82 games
UnderlordSpeeed
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
48% · 190 games41% · 77 games
Windrangerdnm
Windranger
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
50% · 98 games56% · 395 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
50% · 229 games52% · 149 games
TechiesMoOz
Techies
Batrider
BatriderFly
53% · 189 games50% · 119 games
LichBloody Nine
Lich
Game 2prediction missed36:40
Shopify Rebellion 76%Team DogChamp 24%
The model gave 76% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinArteezy
50% · 70 games42% · 120 games
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawAbed
52% · 97 games43% · 44 games
Dark SeerSpeeed
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
53% · 24 games38% · 103 games
Magnusdnm
Magnus
Techies
TechiesCr1t-
60% · 149 games60% · 38 games
Dark WillowMoOz
Dark Willow
Lich
LichFly
62% · 80 games47% · 115 games
SilencerBloody Nine
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct59:13
Shopify Rebellion 74%Team DogChamp 26%
The model gave 74% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 27:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerArteezy
46% · 67 games52% · 73 games
Svendnm
Sven
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
42% · 87 games54% · 144 games
TimbersawSpeeed
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAbed
46% · 235 games55% · 156 games
Void Spiritred2
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
52% · 197 games54% · 57 games
Dark WillowMoOz
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaFly
42% · 72 games55% · 228 games
SilencerBloody Nine
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 90%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3