?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 10 games
40%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 29 games
72%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 23 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
70%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 23 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 674 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 496 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 539 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
358 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 348 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
314 picks · 597 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
311 picks · 552 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:34
Shopify Rebellion 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
52% · 160 games54% · 200 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
47% · 221 game50% · 226 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
48% · 126 games47% · 126 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
53% · 285 games50% · 280 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
46% · 333 games54% · 293 games
LionBoxi
Lion
Game 2prediction correct29:31
Shopify Rebellion 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 46:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
46% · 246 games53% · 59 games
Drow RangermiCKe
Drow Ranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
51% · 149 games47% · 168 games
InvokerNisha
Invoker
Doom
Doommangekyou
46% · 175 games43% · 220 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaHellscream
53% · 167 games56% · 162 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiSkem
57% · 92 games48% · 220 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2