DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tteam_monkeys-loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
team_monkeys-
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
albinozebra · 2 games
Linaoften banned
RCY · 2 games
Mirana
albinozebra · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Centaur Warrunner
377 picks · 611 bans
Mars
369 picks · 571 bans
Techies
367 picks · 291 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 724 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 339 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 346 bans
Hoodwink
330 picks · 196 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% team_monkeys-
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total95% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Shopify Rebellion 82%team_monkeys- 18%
The model gave 82% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 36:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYopaj
SvenDouble King
RazorArteezy
PuckRCY
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Brewmastermonkeys-forever
RubickThiolicor
Enchantressalbinozebra
Game 2prediction correct42:14
Shopify Rebellion 81%team_monkeys- 19%
The model gave 81% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidArteezy
Primal BeastRCY
PangolierYopaj
LifestealerDouble King
RazorSabeRLight-
Pudgemonkeys-forever
TinyThiolicor
Miranaalbinozebra
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 95%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2