DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Sven
Arteezy · 12 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Batridersignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 14 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 14 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 11 games
Tiny
Larl · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 338 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 472 bans
Mars
293 picks · 397 bans
Techies
279 picks · 195 bans
Hoodwink
275 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 403 bans
Batrider
265 picks · 465 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:20
Shopify Rebellion 37%Team Spirit 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistArteezy
TerrorbladeYatoro
PuckYopaj
LeshracLarl
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
HoodwinkThiolicor
UndyingMiposhka
48% · 100 games
GrimstrokeMira
Game 2prediction correct23:36
Shopify Rebellion 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeArteezy
Phantom LancerYatoro
TimbersawYopaj
PuckLarl
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
MarsCollapse
TechiesThiolicor
LionMiposhka
52% · 144 games
ClockwerkMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2