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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TSMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
78%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Cr1t- · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
77%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fly · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 11 games
64%

TSM

Riki
Rikioften banned
Ari · 9 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 9 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 9 games
44%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
kasane · 8 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 8 games
25%
Marci
Marcisignature
Timado · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
741 picks · 471 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
529 picks · 456 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 384 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 574 bans
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 586 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
382 picks · 258 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
371 picks · 617 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 743 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength60% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:12
Shopify Rebellion 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 21:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerArteezy
54% · 67 games43% · 3 games
Tinkerbryle-
Tinker
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAbed
44% · 110 games49% · 94 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Broodmother
BroodmotherSabeRLight-
56% · 137 games52% · 110 games
SlarkTimado
Slark
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
44% · 247 games48% · 388 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Undying
UndyingFly
45% · 187 games57% · 153 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed22:20
Shopify Rebellion 63%TSM 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaArteezy
55% · 305 games39% · 259 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
60% · 129 games48% · 153 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSabeRLight-
55% · 251 game45% · 170 games
Invokerbryle-
Invoker
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
51% · 722 games47% · 693 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
56% · 346 games45% · 478 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed18:29
Shopify Rebellion 59%TSM 41%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaArteezy
49% · 215 games49% · 72 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Doom
DoomSabeRLight-
41% · 118 games55% · 80 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAbed
48% · 177 games54% · 173 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
45% · 35 games50% · 372 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Undying
UndyingFly
55% · 177 games50% · 25 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 68%
Series resultTSM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3