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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TSMwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 32 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 26 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 49 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
59%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bryle- · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
645 picks · 687 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
527 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
446 picks · 962 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 938 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
410 picks · 861 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 866 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
388 picks · 999 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 23%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total68% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:22
Shopify Rebellion 61%TSM 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 24:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracAbed
53% · 376 games47% · 174 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Medusa
MedusaArteezy
65% · 191 game51% · 173 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Axe
AxeSabeRLight-
52% · 61 game41% · 139 games
Primal Beastbryle-
Primal Beast
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
51% · 259 games42% · 337 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Io
IoFly
52% · 162 games45% · 226 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 68%
Series resultTSM 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1