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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 15 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Cr1t- · 15 games
20%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 14 games
64%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 14 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 11 games
27%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 10 games
40%
Underlord
Underlord
kasane · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
212 picks · 103 bans
41%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 418 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
185 picks · 262 bans
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
169 picks · 98 bans
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
166 picks · 169 bans
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
160 picks · 342 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
159 picks · 150 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 34%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total62% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:30
Shopify Rebellion 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willow
Dark WillowArteezy
49% · 117 games51% · 41 game
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackSabeRLight-
48% · 34 games47% · 67 games
Earth Spiritbryle-
Earth Spirit
Puck
PuckAbed
58% · 92 games47% · 84 games
Dawnbreakerkasane
Dawnbreaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCr1t-
44% · 84 games54% · 123 games
TuskAri
Tusk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
57% · 34 games47% · 46 games
GrimstrokeWhitemon
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed8:14
Shopify Rebellion 55%TSM 45%
The model gave 55% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by TSM in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArteezy
55% · 188 games48% · 50 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
46% · 61 game54% · 116 games
Magnusbryle-
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAbed
57% · 189 games48% · 109 games
Lycankasane
Lycan
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
53% · 129 games51% · 270 games
SnapfireAri
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
42% · 122 games43% · 144 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 62%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2