DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 3:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 15 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 10 games
Wildcard Gaming
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 3 games
Magnusoften banned
Fayde · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bignum · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
416 picks · 339 bans
Clockwerk
406 picks · 537 bans
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 435 bans
Lion
352 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 579 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 809 bans
Phoenix
329 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:24
Shopify Rebellion 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTimado
LycanFayde
PangolierYopaj
TinyYamSun
Visagemangekyou
PuckRCY
Dark WillowHellscream
MuertaBignum
LichSkem
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Shopify Rebellion 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTimado
Anti-MageYamSun
Earth SpiritYopaj
TinyRCY
Doommangekyou
MagnusFayde
MorphlingHellscream
MuertaBignum
LichSkem
UndyingSpeeed
Game 3prediction correct28:20
Shopify Rebellion 62%Wildcard Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 49:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTimado
Earth SpiritRCY
Dawnbreakermangekyou
LifestealerYamSun
Dragon KnightYopaj
BeastmasterFayde
AbaddonSkem
Dark WillowBignum
LionHellscream
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Game 4prediction correct22:6
Shopify Rebellion 64%Wildcard Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 25:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTimado
Phantom AssassinYamSun
Beastmastermangekyou
PuckRCY
EarthshakerYopaj
LycanFayde
WeaverHellscream
RubickBignum
Crystal MaidenSkem
WarlockSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 75%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4